The war that broke out in Syria in 2011 continues. Many international and regional powers have been involved in the war with the promise of a "solution", but no "internal stability" has been achieved so far. The war entered a new phase when the Turkish-led Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) re-entered Aleppo after 8 years.

 

GAZA, BEIRUT, ALEPPO

 

Hundreds of thousands of people have lost their lives and millions have been forced to flee their homes in the years-long conflict. Almost all of Syria has been razed to the ground. Aleppo, one of the ancient cities of the Middle East, is one of the cities that have been affected by these conflicts.

 

Aleppo, which is at the centre of the Syrian war, has an importance that can change the fate of the war in the country. After Gaza and Beirut, the forces of the USA, Britain, Israel and NATO, who want to reshape the Middle East, lit the fuse of the war in Aleppo this time. The city is facing a new plunder.

 

THE TARGET IS THE PRESENCE OF IRAN

 

The main objective is to neutralise Iran's political and military presence in the Middle East, starting from Yemen to the Mediterranean Sea and including Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Palestine. Another aim, although it is at the bottom of the list of possibilities, is to narrow Russia's sphere of influence in the Middle East.

 

Iran's military and political gains in the Middle East were led by Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, who was killed by the US in an airstrike in Baghdad in 2020. Soleimani's assassination stands out as a clue that the new design started 4 years ago.

 

FROM AL NUSRA TO HTS

 

Al-Nusra, which remained in Aleppo from the beginning of the war until 2016, was listed as a "terrorist organisation" by several international powers. Al-Nusra later changed its name to HTS. HTS, which was shifted from Aleppo to Idlib with the agreement reached between Russia, Iran and Turkey in 2016, had been present in this region for years. Later on, HTS was positioned in many places from Afrin to Girê Spî, which Turkey occupied in Northern and Eastern Syria.

 

IS NATO THE CENTRE OF THE OPERATION?

 

The new developments in Syria took place on 27 November, after NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's visit to President Erdoğan on 25 November and the start of the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon on 26 November. HTS mobilised as soon as the ceasefire in Lebanon began. These developments do not seem to be independent from the plans to reshape the Middle East. On this basis, it becomes concrete that the centre of operations is NATO and that the military developments involving Ankara are being carried out by HTS in the light of the data on the ground.

 

RUSSIA AND IRAN

 

HTS took some rural areas south of Idlib and then advanced to Aleppo city centre without encountering any resistance. This situation indicates that some Iranian forces and Russia, which had previously acted together with the Syrian regime forces, have also left the city. All indications, including Russia's silence, point to the fact that Moscow is also acting "in agreement" with the new plans. These agreements and war relations between Russia and NATO range from Syria to Ukraine to the war in Libya. Moreover, a HTS-dominated Aleppo has cancelled all agreements reached between Russia, Iran and Turkey in Astana, Sochi and the 2016 Aleppo-Idlib exchange.

 

THE POSSIBILITY OF SPILLOVER TO THE SOUTH OF SYRIA

 

The boundaries of the new balance of power between the hegemonic powers and the evolution of the new shaping of Syria are among the topics of discussion. The new change in Aleppo is expected to affect many parts of Syria, including the south. These developments will radically change the region, from the disintegration of Syria to the formation of new power balances. In fact, it is thought that HTS will not be limited to Aleppo, and it is foreseen that large gaps will be created in the areas where Iran will withdraw from Syria other than Aleppo. In line with the developments in the field, it is assessed that Hama and Homs may mobilise.

 

ŞÊXMEQSÛD

 

Recent developments may cause the war to rewind again. This situation is also important for the Kurds. The autonomous structure that the Kurds, together with the other dynamics of Syria, have formed in Northern and Eastern Syria for years has always faced dangers because it has not been integrated into international and regional powers. The autonomous organisation in question, whose first nuclei were the Şêxmeqsûd and Eşrefiyê neighbourhoods of Aleppo, has now become the only port of refuge after radical Islamist groups entered Aleppo. Tens of thousands of people have been migrating to both neighbourhoods for days.

 

In the new balance, if HTS turns against the people of Aleppo, the risk of conflict is high. However, the presence of the people's defence forces in and around the centre of Aleppo, on the basis of defending the people, reassures the Syrian people. It is assumed that the war in Syria will enter a different phase if HTS implements practices that resemble ISIS and displaces the population.

 

WHAT AUTONOMOUS ADMINISTRATION DOES

 

The situation in Aleppo has the possibility of drawing the whole region into a major war. The Kurds' defence of their existence against all kinds of attacks has not prevented them from being seen as actors in both military and political terms. On the contrary, the autonomous administration, which fights against ISIS and all kinds of derivative organisations in the region to create safe living spaces, has opened its doors to the Syrian people in the new situation. It is developing political, military and diplomatic moves to save the country from war and chaos by establishing a strategic policy for the establishment of a democratic Syria and field dominance with the people. On this basis, it is a candidate to be the founding element of Syria.

 

MA / Nazım Daştan